Latest!!!股神巴菲特給股東的信,Berkshire Hathaway Inc.2007年報
1-3-2008
Warren Buffett's Letter to Shareholders
on't Expect Double-Digit Stock Gains Over Long Run
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23410720
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.年報-2007
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2007ltr.pdf
股神巴菲特俾咗一條問題大家,佢個人認為上個世紀係1個美妙的世紀,道指每年複合增長5.3%,
如果要係呢個世紀保持同樣表現,道指係2099年最後一個交易日會收幾點???(答案係CNBC 條Link 入面,希望大家唔好post答案,俾其他兄弟姊妹想想看)
佢亦叫普羅大眾小心投資機構所承諾年回報率超過10%,因為唔係真係個個做到,如果真係得,2100年道指會係一個天價位開始
(答案都係CNBC 條Link 入面,但都希望大家唔好post答案,俾其他兄弟姊妹想想看)
下面係佢年報嘅重點:
(希望有好心嘅兄弟姊妹幫手翻譯D 重點,我唔識打中文,我用手寫板+Yahoo 字典攪成10幾分鐘先寫到上面的一點點,
如果有好心嘅兄弟姊妹幫手翻譯,我會edit 放上去同埋告訴大家邊位好心嘅兄弟姊妹做嘅,唔該)
- Overall,our 76operating businesses did well last year"
- Few with problems linked to housing -"minor and temporary"
- "As house prices fall,huge amount of financial folly exposed"
- Berkshire subs TTI and Iscar performed "magnificently"
- Insurance business has "excellent"year
- "Certainty"insurance-industry profit margins will fall "significantly"in 2008
- Purchase of Dexter "worse deal that I've made"to date ..but "I'll make more mistakes in the future -you can bet on that."
- "We are delighted by the business performance"of our stock holdings
- "We do not measure the progress of our investments by what their market prices do during any given year"
- Buffettnotes that $1.2billion tax paid on gain from PetroChina sale paid "allcosts of the U.S.government -defense,social security,you name it -for about four hours."
- Berkshire has 94derivative contracts "that I manage"..up from 62in last year's letter
- Berkshire held one direct currency position in 2007:the Brazilian real
- Have been "well-prepared for CEO succession"for some time with three outstanding internal candidates
- "Board knows exactly whom it would pick if I were to become unavailable,either because of death or diminshing abilities"
- Have identified four candidates who "could succeed me in managing investments"at Berkshire
- "I’vereluctantly discarded the notion of my continuing to manage theportfolio after my death –abandoning my hope to give new meaning tothe term 'thinking outside the box.'"
- Some companies "juice"earnings -"It turned out that for many CEOs even the low road wasn’t good enough."
- Many pension funds underfunded,and relying on unrealistic expectations of growth
- "Forinvestors to merely match (the 20th century's)5.3%market-value gain,the Dow –recently below 13,000–would need to close at about2,000,000on December 31,2099."
- "We arenow eight years into this century,and we have racked up less than2,000of the 1,988,000Dow points the market needed to travel in thishundred years to equal the 5.3%of the last.
- "It’samusing that commentators (does he mean us?!)regularly hyperventilateat the prospect of the Dow crossing an even number of thousands,suchas 14,000or 15,000.If they keep reacting that way,a 5.3%annual gainfor the century will mean they experience at least 1,986seizuresduring the next 92years.While anything is possible,does anyonereally believe this is the most likely outcome?"
- Anyone expecting 10%a year from stocks this century is forecasting the Dow will reach 24,000,000by 2100
- Beware the "helpers"(consultants and managers)who promise double-digit returns from equities
- "Manyhelpers are apparently direct descendants of the queen in Alice inWonderland,who said:'Why,sometimes I’ve believed as many as siximpossible things before breakfast.'Beware the glib helper who fillsyour head with fantasies while he fills his pockets with fees."
- "Whateverpension-cost surprises are in store for shareholders down the road,these jolts will be surpassed many times over by those experienced bytaxpayers.Public pension promises are huge and,in many cases,fundingis woefully inadequate."
